As organizations prepare for another year of highly sophisticated, AI-driven email threats, Cofense’s 2026 Phishing Threat Predictions webinar brought together experts Joshua Bartolomie, Max Gannon, and Chance Caldwell to break down what security teams should anticipate in the year ahead. Their insights reveal a threat landscape shaped by accelerating offensive and defensive AI adoption and the growing need for stronger context, governance, and human expertise.
Here are the five biggest takeaways security leaders need to know.
1. Human–AI partnership will define cyber resilience in 2026
While AI is becoming indispensable in security operations, leaders warn that over-reliance brings real risk. CISOs are already feeling pressure to reduce analyst headcount and “let AI handle it,” but AI systems still struggle with fast-changing phishing tactics and lack the contextual understanding analysts provide.
AI should reduce noise, not replace expertise. Human-in-the-loop decision-making, critical thinking, and anomaly detection will be essential to avoid blind spots and maintain trust in automated outcomes.
2. The Automation Paradox is here and it's shrinking the window between attack and compromise
Threat actors are using AI to speed up every phase of their campaigns, from crafting targeted messages to executing compromises and scaling laterally. Cofense predicts that the timeline from initial phishing email to organizational compromise will shrink to less than one hour, a dramatic acceleration driven by attacker-side AI.
Lean SOCs paired with over-tuned automation will struggle to respond fast enough unless teams improve visibility, enrich detections with threat intelligence, and maintain skilled analysts who can validate and escalate emerging threats.
3. Context will become the core of phishing detection
Traditional phishing defense still depends heavily on URL or payload scanning, but attackers are now using open redirects, link-shorteners, legitimate hosting platforms, and rapid polymorphism to evade these controls.
Because email content and indicators can change minute-to-minute, context, including cross-channel signals, behavioral clues, campaign lineage, and downstream activity, will become the only reliable way to detect advanced phishing attacks. Organizations must build layered detection strategies that combine IOCs with campaign-level intelligence and anomaly analysis.
4. Oversharing will fuel a surge in hyper-targeted phishing attacks
Threat actors are already scraping social media, organizational charts, and public records to generate highly personalized phishing campaigns at scale, and AI makes that both faster and cheaper.
The team noted recent examples where attackers pulled individuals’ home addresses, generated Google Maps screenshots, and inserted them into extortion emails to increase credibility. As generative AI evolves, this level of personalization will become the norm, not the exception. Organizations should proactively assess what information about their employees is publicly available and minimize unnecessary exposure.
5. Remote access tools will become attackers’ favorite weapon and one of the hardest to detect
Remote Access Trojans (RATs) surged in 2025 and will continue to dominate in 2026—but not because attackers are writing new malware. Instead, they’re abusing legitimate, signed remote access tools like ConnectWise or AnyDesk.
These tools blend perfectly into normal traffic: binaries are signed, network communications look benign, and IT teams sometimes use the same tools legitimately, making detections extremely difficult.
To counter this, organizations should restrict which remote access tools are allowed internally and block all others, while reinforcing fundamental controls like multi-factor authentication, domain monitoring, and user reporting.
Conclusion
The message across all the predictions was clear: AI is reshaping the phishing landscape at machine speed, and both attackers and defenders are adapting quickly. But success in 2026 won’t come from AI alone; it will come from blending AI-driven efficiency with human judgment, contextual detection, strong governance, and continuous real-time intelligence.
Want the complete discussion including examples, deeper analysis, and practical recommendations straight from the experts? Watch the full 2026 Phishing Threat Predictions webinar on demand now.